Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 93636.664975 98734.616519 103829.471379 109299.855798 115003.709643 120772.146611 127043.335268
2025-09-07 85675.772870 93507.711113 101550.999699 110418.232111 119908.822212 129751.278048 140719.532507
2025-09-14 79892.561095 89609.533490 99805.161592 111279.028028 123809.724509 137056.968320 152098.269442
2025-09-21 74940.104006 86019.941691 97857.620063 111410.496238 126461.090328 142625.398052 161261.028848
2025-09-28 70907.026279 83062.252088 96256.170832 111589.471899 128864.760424 147671.246519 169636.896425
2025-10-05 68536.434472 81736.687156 96265.566358 113372.139223 132888.005802 154383.065165 179770.542106
2025-10-12 66304.863362 80393.362146 96099.465340 114814.198581 136409.123495 160446.575459 189123.456196
2025-10-19 63939.667556 78746.108859 95452.645062 115583.399306 139060.108703 165449.518034 197225.878235
2025-10-26 61454.652400 76826.443450 94371.570184 115738.734047 140908.725098 169463.742598 204148.366625
2025-11-02 59368.490630 75274.139342 93626.299296 116200.050641 143041.520568 173754.932019 211363.005688
2025-11-09 57196.868343 73522.097565 92556.979855 116196.444268 144558.908607 177279.808669 217654.745104
2025-11-16 55822.166169 72670.246302 92505.622208 117357.356823 147420.360773 182363.045756 225781.032497
2025-11-23 53799.278163 70971.437061 91393.330105 117215.378854 148719.020028 185619.237065 231799.252659
2025-11-30 52737.354464 70421.227499 91646.591532 118709.455280 151982.786547 191228.185076 240661.446916
2025-12-07 51493.479942 69591.605965 91512.799142 119693.026837 154603.058081 196059.773968 248607.754664
2025-12-14 49924.973660 68293.456691 90746.521137 119848.415740 156173.110276 199602.327115 254994.766738
2025-12-21 48466.490813 67084.144668 90044.817779 120041.972926 157757.368048 203143.194730 261378.176367
2025-12-28 47881.036381 66974.176753 90708.188352 121934.979264 161449.680870 209273.956205 270961.113128
2026-01-04 47167.842101 66667.984393 91098.358411 123465.595376 164683.288542 214849.795708 279891.800616
2026-01-11 46176.828213 65961.969718 90946.780198 124281.892049 167003.406519 219294.591585 287441.665421
2026-01-18 44952.237207 64907.729051 90311.287718 124446.731421 168475.859210 222674.381308 293673.377684
2026-01-25 43923.548223 64083.347850 89946.254412 124936.235196 170345.325786 226545.647131 300529.715275
2026-02-01 42736.830311 63010.624553 89224.045726 124932.409047 171560.528514 229583.375023 306343.239236